Reactions: Hiroyuki Nakajima to the Yankees

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees have won the bid to negotiate with Hiroyuki Nakajima, Japanese middle-infield extraordinaire.

…and as Jon Heyman also tweets (keep in mind Jon Heyman is full of horse shit), the bid was only $2,000,000. Two million? For real, Major League Baseball?

I am not so concerned with the Yankees signing Nakajima – and truthfully it might be a little difficult to sign a career .302 hitter with an .845 OPS as a UTILITY player – I am more concerned that MLB GMs have just given up on the posting system, aside from the top payrolls.

The Yankees do not need Nakajima. Many other teams would be able to slot him in, every day (which he has done in Japan). A few examples, oh, the San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers (please, DD, realize what you do not have in Ramon Santiago), New York Mets, San Diego Padres and probably some more (Chicago Cubs?).

In short, this deal kind of sucks for baseball, especially the Japan-American posting system. Get rid of it. It doesn’t work.

However, it remains that something is up in New York. While some thing NYY will sign ‘jima to a long-term deal and groom him for SS in the future, I’m not buying it. Brian Cashman is a brilliant, terrific, shifty as hell general manager – he gets what he wants. As someone brought up over at MLBTR, there might be another deal going down. It is impossible to rule out the Yankees putting in a heavy bid for Nakajima, signing him, and trading him to another team for a new starting pitcher. We’ll see.

When Wikipedia is all that will do: Hiroyuki Nakajima

Hiroyuki Nakajima has been bid upon, and we here at the Squeeze are anxiously waiting the news.

As an upappologetic fanboy of the Japanese way of playing baseball, I myself am hoping this is a coy Alex Anthopoulos signing, but we’ll keep fandom out of this one, and take a look at where he may end up, and what impact he may have in America. Or, Canada.

About Nakajima

Tangibles:

NPB statistics (through 2010 season)
Batting average	.302
Home runs	133
RBI	564
Stolen bases	113

Those are some pretty suave counting stats at first glance. Unfortunately, I do not know if a Fangraphs equivalent exists for NPB (if one knows of such a website, let us know), so we cannot really get into advanced metrics. I would assume his career stats in the MLB would approach a .280 AVG, 10-15 HR per season at best, and steals could remain consistent with his NPB numbers, however, this would also depend on his landing place: think Athletics versus Angels. And RBIs, well, they’re just a shitty stat in general – but I imagine based on where he is in the lineup and such, that his RBI rate would diminish.

What I like about Nakajima, and what everyone seems to like, is his unique combination for power and speed, and general hitting ability. In Japan, he’s had a career OPS of .845. In relation to MLB second basemen and shortstops, you’ll see two with a better OPS in the ’10s: Robinson Cano (.899!) and Dustin Pedroia (.861). Now I am assuming Nakajima’s is so high because of OBP and not SLUG%, but you get the idea. The guys seems legit, even if he takes a hit coming to the US.

Year	Age	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2001	18	Seibu	Did not play at major league level
2002	19		4	7	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.143	.143	.143	.286
2003	20		44	89	12	23	3	1	4	40	11	1	.258	.327	.449	.776
2004	21		133	502	70	144	22	3	27	253	90	18	.287	.349	.504	.853
2005	22		118	405	56	111	21	2	11	169	60	11	.274	.327	.417	.744
2006	23		105	412	76	126	22	1	16	198	63	14	.306	.368	.481	.849
2007	24		143	533	68	160	28	5	12	234	74	9	.300	.361	.439	.801
2008	25	Saitama Seibu	124	486	75	161	32	0	21	256	81	25	.331	.410	.527	.937
2009	26		144	560	100	173	31	3	22	276	92	20	.309	.398	.493	.891
2010	27	Saitama Seibu	130	503	80	158	33	3	20	259	93	15	.314	.385	.511	.896
Career			815	2994	457	899	159	15	113	1427	471	98	.300	.368	.476	.845

Now, some of the information is a bit outdated, such as:

His playing style has often been compared to that of a young Kazuo Matsui (who currently plays second base for the Houston Astros).

…which isn’t the worst situation. I remember Kazuo being slick at second, but definitely sloppy throwing the ball around the diamond. Japanese 1B are usually excellent fielders and light hitters, so we in North America only see them in International play – with an exception on Hee Sop Choi, who played a brief career with the Florida Marlins and Chicago Cubs.

Possible Landing Spots

For this part I am only going to look at best-fits based on gaping 2B holes, financial freedom, and competent ownership and management (sorry Dodgers, Cardinals, etc.)

Although many teams have holes at second base, not all have the financial freedom to first win the bid on negotiating rights, as well as the salary that comes after. And some have just shown no indication of being interested in Japanese players. Because of this, I’ll exclude the Padres, Royals and Marlins (especially if Albert Pujols were to accept the morbidly obese contract of 10-Years/$200 Million).

With that, I’ve narrowed Nakajima’s best fits to the following:

Toronto Blue Jays

• My own homerism aside, the Jays are a great fit for Nakajima. Also, Nakajima’s agent, Don Nomura has tweeted about the Jay’s interest, which so far we haven’t heard of another team with intent on singing him. The bottom line is that if Kelly Johnson doesn’t accept arbitration (which, as it seems, is likely with no forfeited pick to whoever signs him) the Jays have a hole, money to spend, and a fanbase and management that’s ready to win now.

Detroit Tigers

• Eventually, Dave Dombrowski will realize that Ramon Santiago…just ins’t that good. Tigers seem open to spending some money this season, and they’ll need to improve a bit this offseason in order to stay ahead of the surging Cleveland Indians.

San Francisco Giants

• Whether Sabean realizes what’s good for the team or not remains to be seen, but the biggest 2B hole in the bigs is in San Francisco. Of their “depth” in the middle infield, their brightest spot is…(really?) Mike Fontenot.

Washington Nationals

• Sure, the Nats have Danny Espinosa, yet Nakajima would be a considerable upgrade. Forget what you’ve heard of Espinosa’s potential – he strikes out too much, is an atrocious fielder and though his power is considerable, his other tools, or lack of, are not improving. Plus, the Nationals have a pile of money that they’re itching to spend this offseason.

It remains a possibly, of course, that Nakajima would be an upgrade nearly everywhere in the MLB, as it’s not the best time to be looking for a second baseman. However, in the past he’s played 3B and SS as well, making him out to what seems to be a rather versatile player. Playing devil’s advocate, the same was probably uttered about Tsuyoshi Nishioka last season (who, in his defense, was about the break out before Nick Swisher broke his leg). No matter what, bidding on Japanese players is always going to be a gamble (see Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa). We’ll see how it turns out, and expect to see a new post here either tonight or tomorrow, after the winning bidder is announced.

Obligatory ‘Reyes to Marlins’ analysis post

Well, it happened. Ya’ll thought the Marlins were just kidding.

“Throw the idea of big free agent signings,and even if the studs won’t sing, the fans will come.” They said.

Well, last night, Jose Reyes and the Miami (puke) Marlins pulled off a 6-year, $102M deal,  and I am pretty excited about it.

Why? Because the Marlins just became one of the better teams in the National League East. That’s right – as of now, the Miami Marlins are better than the Braves, Nationals and especially the Metros.

Yet, the Phillies still loom atop and the Nationals could be a powerhouse within 1-2 seasons. The problem with the Nationals and Phillies is a few glaring holes masked by stopgaps and phenoms. Take Ryan Howard out of the Phillies lineup (just make your pitcher throw left handed) and their anemic offense is exposed. Utley is a shell of his former self. Rollins might not even return. The Nationals can slug like an American League team, but they still can’t pitch (well, except for that one guy.)

The Marlins, however, have built a reasonable pitching staff (no, really) and have a beautiful young, lineup.

Let’s project:

1. Jose Reyes (SS)

2. Emilio Bonifaco (3B/2B/SS/OF) / Matt Dominguez (3B)

3. Hanley Ramirez (2B/SS/3B/CF)

4. Mike Stanton (RF)

5. Gaby Sanchez (1B)

6. Logan Morrisson (LF)

7. John Buck (C)

8. Chris Coghlan (OF) / Emilio Bonifacio (Util) / Omar Infante (Util)

9. Pitching Void (SP/RP)

I mean come on, that was a good lineup last year. Now they have Reyes atop – erasing a steady state question mark or Ramirez/Bonifacio/Other. The Reyes signing puts HanRam in his place, as well – the #3 hole. However, the position mash-up for Miami right now is a little messy. Reyes should play shortstop. As good as Hanley is, he’s lazy, and you cannot have a lazy SS. Ramirez could land at 3B if the Marlins fall to acquire a serviceable player and Matt Dominguez isn’t ready, I am sure he is capable of 2B, but the Marlins would be better off keeping Bonifacio in the lineup regularly at 2B, and with HanRam’s athleticism, he could easily play CF while Chris Coghlan figures out WHAT HAPPENED after 2010.

Actually, if you bother to follow the link to FanGraphs, you’ll notice Chris Coghlan really wasn’t that great…ever. So, shit, just move Hanley to centre field. I am sure he can handle it.

There is one step the Marlins need to take to become a true competitor with the Phillies, and that’s CJ Wilson. A rotation of Josh Johnson / Hipster CJ / Ricky Nolasco / Anibal Sanchez / Miscellaneous would be a nice return to how the Marlins have got to the World Series (and won it, 2-for-2!) in the past – and with an even better lineup behind them.

Of course, this all rests on the health of Reyes, which, as we all know, is questionable at best. Harold Reynolds on last night’s Hot Stove bluntly stated that he’d be healthier playing in Miami, where it’s more humid and warmer through the season. Apparently, Harold has never been to Queens in the summer. Keep in mind that as it may be good conditions for playing in Miami (especially with the dome) the Marlins will still have to play in the shitty North Atlantic climes of Queens, the Bronx, Philadelphia and Washington until June at the earliest. Lest we forget Chicago, San Francisco, Denver, and any of the other open-air away stops the Marlins may see this Spring.

By the way, BleacherReport usually sucks, but a big effing eh to whoever photoshopped that M on to Reyes’ pic. Well done.

 

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By Roy-Z